After a sharp rise near the end of the weekend, Bitcoin is now at a technical crossroads. While momentum sparked hopes of a trend reversal, the underlying structure tells a more cautious story — one that traders shouldn’t ignore.
Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with an impulsive move to the upside, breaking out of a short-term consolidation and sweeping liquidity above recent highs. While this breakout captured attention, the broader structure tells a different story. Despite the rally, Bitcoin has failed to shift the overall trend, which continues to reflect a bearish bias. The recent swing high at $88,465 falls just short of breaking the previous high at $88,500 — a key level that defines the continuation of the downtrend.
Key points
Bitcoin’s recent high at $88,465 remains below the prior lower high of $88,500, keeping the bearish structure intact.
Price has yet to show an impulsive breakout with strong volume, which is necessary to confirm a structural shift.
Downside targets include $74,500 and $67,850 if current market structure continues to play out.
The inability to breach the previous lower high, even by a small margin, confirms that the current market structure is still bearish. A legitimate break of trend would require Bitcoin to move above $88,500 with strength, ideally supported by a surge in volume and momentum. Without that, this recent move is better viewed as another lower high within the existing downtrend, rather than a signal of bullish continuation.
From a structural standpoint, this pattern of lower highs and lower lows has been consistent over recent weeks. If the $88,465 level holds and price begins to roll over, it opens the door for a sweep of liquidity resting at $74,500 — a level that has historically attracted demand but could be vulnerable in this context. Below that, the next significant support comes in at $67,850, which would mark a fresh lower low and confirm the ongoing bearish cycle.
For traders, this setup calls for caution. While the upside move may appear strong on lower time frames, it lacks confirmation on higher time frame structures. Unless Bitcoin can convincingly break and hold above $88,500, the safer bias remains bearish. Longs from current levels are riskier plays unless they’re tightly managed or supported by strong confirmation.
What to Expect in the Coming Price Action
If $88,500 remains unbroken, Bitcoin is likely to trade lower in the sessions ahead. Expect liquidity sweeps near $74,500, with potential continuation toward $67,850. The bearish trend remains dominant until proven otherwise, and caution is advised for bullish positioning.
