While Bitcoin has factored in a lot of recession concerns, analysts at Bitwise are cautioning that risks could still lie ahead.
Bitcoin (BTC) as well as other altcoins have likely already priced in a lot of the U.S. recession fears, but there’s still a chance for some more downside if the recession actually happens.
In a recent research report, analysts at crypto management firm Bitwise outlined that Bitcoin’s performance during past recessions has shown mixed results. For instance, during the 2020 Covid recession, Bitcoin sold off by over 50% but still ended the year up more than 300%.
Based on this case, the analysts say it is “quite likely that Bitcoin is likely going to stay under pressure if equity downside continues.” So far, Bitcoin has already experienced a drawdown of about 27% from its peak, suggesting most of the recession fears are reflected in the price.
“The key takeaway here is that U.S. recession fears are already being priced into bitcoin and other cryptoassets as we speak but there might still be a little bit more downside left if a U.S. recession actually materialises.”
Bitwise
Yet, the analysts also see signs of “peak uncertainty,” noting that U.S. economic policy uncertainty is “as high as during Covid” and that “Google search trends for the word ‘recession’ also as high as during Covid.”
As analysts at QCP Capital noted earlier in a Telegram post, markets are now focused on President Donald Trump’s upcoming “Liberation Day” announcement on April 2, where he is expected to unveil new reciprocal tariffs.
The analysts pointed out that with consumer confidence at a 12-year low and equities already under pressure from a 4-5% weekly drawdown, aggressive trade policies could deepen recession fears and weigh further on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
