Since reaching a weekly high of $88,752 on March 24, Bitcoin (BTC) price has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows in the 1-hour time frame chart.
As the end of the week approaches, Bitcoin price has failed to break above the $88,000 resistance, reducing the chance for a $90,000 retest before the end of Q1.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
What is keeping Bitcoin under $90K?
One major reason for Bitcoin’s current price struggles is constant sell-side pressure from short-term holders (STHs) or investors holding coins for less than 155 days. Glassnode’s “The Week On-chain” newsletter noted that the current Bitcoin cycle has witnessed a “top heavy” market where investors who purchased BTC at higher prices hold a significant portion of Bitcoin’s supply. As a result, the STH cohort have become the primary group facing the largest price drawdown since Bitcoin’s 30% correction from its all-time high.
In the report, Glassnode analysts said,
“Volume of Short-Term Holder supply held in loss surging to a massive 3.4M BTC. This is the largest volume of STH supply in loss since July 2018.”
Bitcoin total supply in loss held by STHs. Source: Glassnode
The selling pressure faced by the short-term holders is reflected in Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score.
Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score, a metric that quantifies selling pressure, remained below 0.1 since BTC price dropped from $108,000 to the $93,000-$97,000 range. A score under 0.5 signals distribution (selling) instead of accumulation, and a sub-0.1 value highlights intense selling pressure.
Another reason Bitcoin has struggled to break through the $90,000 threshold is due to the contraction of liquidity conditions. Data suggests that onchain transfer volumes have dropped to $5.2 billion daily, a steep 47% decline from the peak during the rally to all-time highs. Similarly, the active address count has also decreased by 18%, dropping from 950,000 in November 2024 to 780,000.
At the same time, the open interest (OI) in the BTC futures market dropped 24% from $71.85 billion to $54.65 billion, with the perpetual futures funding rates also cooling down.
This deleveraging and liquidity contraction—combined with only 2.5% of the total supply moving in profit during the correction—limits the market’s capacity to rally past $90k since there are insufficient buy orders to absorb sell orders.
Related: Bitcoin price prediction markets bet BTC won’t go higher than $138K in 2025
New demand for Bitcoin continues to fall
Glassnode data also highlighted that the current BTC bull cycle lacks new demand (buyers) entering the market, with the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap showing supply concentration at higher price levels ($100K-$108K) but no significant influx of buyers at lower levels to drive a price recovery.
Bitcoin Euphoria Zone, Top Buyer Cost Basis. Source: Glassnode
The lack of demand factor is compounded by macroeconomic uncertainty, which has discouraged new investors, as seen in the transition to net capital outflows when the 1-week to 1-month STH cost basis fell below the 1-month to 3-month cost basis.
However, Glassnode analysts said,
“The flip side of these observations is that the Long-Term Holder cohort still retains a substantial portion of the network wealth, holding almost 40% of invested value.”
Essentially, these periods of prolonged accumulation can eventually constrict the supply and lead to better conditions for a new wave of demand once a stronger uptrend is established in the market.
Related: Would GameStop buying Bitcoin help BTC price hit $200K?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
