Bitcoin risks deeper drop if $75K support fails amid macro concerns

Bitcoin risks more downside if it loses a “key” $75,000 support amid growing concerns over a potential trade war between the United States and China.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has fallen more than 6.5% during the past 24 hours to sink below a low of $78,197, which was last seen on Nov. 10, 2024, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

Analysts attribute the current decline to macroeconomic concerns related to a potential trade war between the US and China caused by US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose import tariffs.

These macroeconomic concerns were the main reason for Bitcoin losing the $80,000 support, according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.

The analyst told Cointelegraph:

“Bitcoin’s drop below $80,000 amid investor fear from Trump’s tariffs and market unrest, points to a correction likely hitting $76,000-$78,000 this week, nearing $75,000 as a key support level based on historical patterns and trader sentiment.”

Still, some analysts are concerned that Bitcoin’s correction may see the world’s first cryptocurrency revisit $70,000.

Based on its correlation with the global liquidity index, Bitcoin’s right-hand side (RHS), which marks the lowest bid price someone is willing to sell the currency for, may fall below $70,000 around the end of February, after it peaked near $110,000 in January.

The first warning of a correction to $70,000 came from Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor, in a November X post, which also predicted that Bitcoin will reach a “local top” above $110,000 in January, before heading into the current correction.

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Can Bitcoin hold $75k support to avoid a plunge to $70k?

Despite the poor investor sentiment, Bitcoin seems unlikely to fall to $70,000 before the end of the week.

Given continued dip buying from large institutions such as Michael Saylor’s Strategy, a plunge to $70,000 seems “less probable” without significant new downside catalysts, said Lee, adding:

“A further plunge to $70,000 is possible but less probable by March 2 without a significant new shock. The $75,000 level aligns with technical support and stablecoin buffers, while $70,000 would need sustained panic or macro deterioration beyond current pressures.”

Still, a decline below $75,000 would add significant downside volatility by triggering nearly $900 million worth of leveraged long liquidations across all exchanges, CoinGlass data shows.

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However, Bitcoin’s current correction may last another two weeks, based on historical chart patterns analyzed by crypto analyst Rekt Capital.

“Bitcoin is in its first price discovery correction,” wrote the analyst in a Feb. 27 X post, adding:

“Depth-wise, this current -25% Price Discovery Correction has been shallower by standards of history though still quite close to the -30% mark. Duration-wise however, this 11 week pullback has been more in line with 2013 duration.”

Assuming that the current downtrend will mimic the 2013 correction, Bitcoin may face two more weeks of downside pressure.

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